* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/18/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 42 44 43 43 43 41 37 36 37 38 38 V (KT) LAND 40 42 42 44 43 43 43 41 37 36 37 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 43 43 43 41 38 35 33 33 34 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 13 12 10 17 23 22 23 20 18 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 2 2 4 1 5 5 3 4 0 2 SHEAR DIR 162 182 192 208 212 235 253 263 269 262 273 264 275 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.7 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 121 121 121 122 124 128 132 134 135 138 142 145 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 114 113 113 115 120 122 123 122 124 126 127 131 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 59 58 56 54 50 44 40 40 42 45 48 53 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 15 13 12 13 11 9 8 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 31 26 32 30 30 24 5 -20 -54 -68 -70 -70 -61 200 MB DIV -10 2 15 30 30 13 10 13 -35 -12 -2 -10 0 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 5 5 7 12 13 12 7 7 4 4 LAND (KM) 1815 1800 1788 1773 1763 1741 1767 1740 1637 1495 1358 1300 1284 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.1 19.0 20.2 21.4 22.4 23.2 24.0 24.9 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 40.2 41.1 42.0 42.7 43.4 45.3 47.3 49.0 50.6 52.3 54.1 55.3 56.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 9 8 9 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 13 16 15 9 10 14 18 22 25 25 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -4. -7. -11. -12. -13. -15. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 4. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.2 40.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/18/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.67 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.63 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.51 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.41 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 271.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.67 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 16.0% 11.1% 10.3% 8.1% 9.0% 14.1% Logistic: 3.6% 13.7% 7.3% 3.5% 0.0% 1.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 3.5% 10.4% 6.3% 4.6% 2.7% 3.5% 4.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/18/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/18/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 42 44 43 43 43 41 37 36 37 38 38 18HR AGO 40 39 39 41 40 40 40 38 34 33 34 35 35 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 37 37 37 35 31 30 31 32 32 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 29 29 27 23 22 23 24 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT