* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/18/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 42 42 40 42 39 38 38 37 38 38 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 42 42 40 42 39 38 38 37 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 40 40 39 37 34 31 30 29 30 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 14 13 14 23 25 23 23 22 15 14 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 0 6 2 3 6 4 3 3 1 2 SHEAR DIR 178 195 215 217 216 246 267 280 271 281 315 341 10 SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.5 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 120 121 122 124 125 130 133 134 136 140 144 149 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 113 114 116 117 121 123 122 123 124 127 130 134 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -52.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 58 55 53 48 45 42 39 41 40 44 46 54 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 13 13 10 12 9 8 8 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 23 25 23 35 38 10 -7 -40 -73 -80 -94 -79 -71 200 MB DIV -5 0 10 25 23 13 11 -24 -20 -37 -14 -25 11 700-850 TADV 2 4 5 7 8 8 14 16 13 8 11 5 5 LAND (KM) 1809 1798 1785 1773 1767 1777 1794 1721 1579 1469 1381 1340 1358 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.7 20.9 22.1 23.1 24.0 24.8 25.8 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 40.9 41.6 42.4 43.3 44.1 46.0 47.9 49.7 51.4 52.9 54.3 55.5 56.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 7 11 14 16 10 8 10 17 17 24 24 25 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -4. -3. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 2. 0. 2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.7 40.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/18/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.59 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.43 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.50 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.16 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.41 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 298.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.64 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 13.1% 9.1% 8.4% 6.4% 7.6% 10.3% Logistic: 2.9% 8.5% 4.3% 2.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.7% 7.5% 4.5% 3.5% 2.1% 2.9% 3.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/18/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/18/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 40 42 42 40 42 39 38 38 37 38 38 18HR AGO 40 39 39 41 41 39 41 38 37 37 36 37 37 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 38 36 38 35 34 34 33 34 34 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 28 30 27 26 26 25 26 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT