* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENESIS AL772016 08/18/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 44 51 57 60 60 63 66 73 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 44 51 57 60 60 63 66 73 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 36 42 49 55 58 59 59 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 8 9 10 11 7 9 7 9 12 3 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 7 5 0 0 0 0 2 2 4 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 86 79 48 43 51 26 9 360 269 270 277 225 67 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 27.8 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.5 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 132 133 134 138 136 130 132 135 139 147 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 127 129 130 131 139 138 134 136 142 145 155 159 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 11 700-500 MB RH 72 74 76 73 72 71 67 66 61 66 62 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 24 30 33 28 30 31 26 21 45 59 62 58 200 MB DIV 22 34 14 3 10 5 -4 25 23 42 42 50 29 700-850 TADV 7 6 4 3 2 1 -2 0 3 3 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 1173 1242 1329 1422 1498 1677 1902 1747 1492 1218 956 757 407 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.3 10.9 10.6 10.5 10.7 11.7 12.7 13.5 13.7 13.4 12.7 12.1 LONG(DEG W) 27.8 28.4 29.1 29.9 30.6 32.4 34.8 37.9 41.6 45.8 50.1 54.0 57.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 8 7 11 14 18 19 21 20 19 16 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 19 24 23 17 18 21 9 11 39 59 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 17.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 33. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 26. 32. 35. 35. 38. 41. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 27.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL772016 GENESIS 08/18/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.71 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.90 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.29 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.68 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 77.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 17.3% 11.7% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 11.4% Bayesian: 999.0% 13.7% 7.0% 1.0% 1.2% 2.4% 2.7% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.4% 999.0% 10.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL772016 GENESIS 08/18/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 34 38 44 51 57 60 60 63 66 73 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 34 40 47 53 56 56 59 62 69 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 34 41 47 50 50 53 56 63 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 25 32 38 41 41 44 47 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT