* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/19/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 42 42 42 42 38 37 35 36 37 39 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 42 42 42 42 38 37 35 36 37 39 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 40 40 39 36 33 31 30 29 30 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 10 12 18 24 21 23 26 21 13 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 3 7 4 5 8 8 2 8 0 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 194 208 208 212 237 256 273 267 267 291 306 335 13 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.6 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.4 28.7 29.1 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 121 122 123 125 126 132 134 134 136 142 146 152 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 114 115 116 118 123 124 123 123 126 128 131 134 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 57 52 49 46 44 42 40 40 41 43 49 53 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 12 11 11 11 8 7 6 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 26 25 37 32 22 2 -19 -60 -74 -90 -87 -90 -69 200 MB DIV 2 14 34 37 21 1 -4 -8 -37 -28 -33 -6 -7 700-850 TADV 4 5 8 7 8 10 14 23 9 16 7 6 3 LAND (KM) 1793 1767 1741 1728 1723 1750 1735 1640 1481 1372 1304 1313 1382 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.2 18.6 19.8 21.0 22.1 23.1 24.1 25.1 26.2 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 41.4 42.3 43.2 44.0 44.9 46.8 48.7 50.5 52.4 54.0 55.4 56.2 56.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 10 15 17 13 10 9 12 18 22 25 25 24 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -2. -3. -5. -4. -3. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.9 41.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/19/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.62 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.60 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.48 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.42 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 316.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.63 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 14.7% 10.0% 9.3% 7.3% 8.0% 11.2% Logistic: 3.6% 8.7% 4.7% 2.2% 0.0% 1.4% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 3.3% 8.4% 5.1% 3.9% 2.4% 3.2% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/19/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/19/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 42 42 42 42 38 37 35 36 37 39 18HR AGO 40 39 40 40 40 40 40 36 35 33 34 35 37 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 36 36 36 32 31 29 30 31 33 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 30 30 26 25 23 24 25 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT