* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/19/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 41 42 40 37 35 33 32 32 33 35 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 41 42 40 37 35 33 32 32 33 35 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 40 39 37 34 31 29 27 27 27 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 15 19 21 23 26 26 28 20 19 20 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 4 3 2 6 5 5 5 5 1 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 193 197 212 234 242 261 270 269 289 313 324 344 355 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.6 28.9 29.3 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 122 123 124 127 129 133 134 136 140 144 149 155 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 114 116 119 121 123 125 125 126 128 130 134 137 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 8 10 10 11 11 12 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 52 48 46 43 43 39 42 38 40 44 51 55 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 10 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 26 38 32 23 13 -14 -39 -66 -74 -90 -91 -90 -73 200 MB DIV 7 33 32 15 -5 -8 -30 -30 -47 -43 -43 0 -2 700-850 TADV 5 7 7 7 8 12 20 14 14 13 5 2 -2 LAND (KM) 1774 1750 1733 1730 1736 1751 1670 1498 1321 1219 1210 1284 1425 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.7 19.2 20.3 21.3 22.4 23.4 24.4 25.4 26.7 28.1 LONG(DEG W) 42.2 43.1 43.9 44.8 45.8 47.9 49.8 52.0 54.2 55.9 56.8 57.1 56.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 11 11 11 11 11 10 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 14 17 14 10 9 11 19 23 26 23 24 24 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 2. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.3 42.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/19/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.48 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.79 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.48 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.44 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 9.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 338.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.61 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 14.7% 10.1% 9.3% 7.2% 7.7% 8.8% Logistic: 4.0% 8.9% 4.4% 2.6% 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 8.1% 4.9% 4.0% 2.4% 2.9% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/19/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/19/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 41 42 40 37 35 33 32 32 33 35 18HR AGO 40 39 40 39 40 38 35 33 31 30 30 31 33 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 36 34 31 29 27 26 26 27 29 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 29 26 24 22 21 21 22 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT