* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/19/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 39 39 38 38 36 35 35 34 36 36 V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 39 39 38 38 36 35 35 34 36 36 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 39 38 36 34 31 29 28 27 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 15 16 18 24 25 24 27 23 23 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 3 5 2 2 7 6 0 3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 205 215 226 231 240 266 271 275 292 303 332 359 4 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.5 28.9 29.3 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 127 129 132 135 135 139 144 149 155 160 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 116 119 121 124 126 125 127 130 131 134 137 138 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 12 11 12 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 49 46 45 44 42 38 36 37 43 49 54 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 9 9 10 8 8 6 6 5 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 35 31 27 14 2 -21 -47 -61 -79 -90 -95 -69 -54 200 MB DIV 18 25 7 -8 -1 -2 -26 -33 -26 -45 -12 -14 32 700-850 TADV 6 6 5 7 12 15 21 12 16 6 5 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1745 1725 1713 1704 1701 1675 1538 1350 1214 1180 1219 1257 1285 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.1 18.5 19.0 19.4 20.6 21.6 22.7 24.0 25.2 26.4 27.4 28.3 LONG(DEG W) 43.0 43.9 44.9 45.9 47.0 49.1 51.4 53.6 55.7 57.0 57.7 58.4 59.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 11 10 8 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 17 14 10 9 10 15 20 26 22 24 25 28 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -16. -16. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -4. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.6 43.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/19/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.48 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.42 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.54 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.15 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.46 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 20.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 343.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.60 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 12.7% 8.5% 7.6% 5.6% 7.0% 9.0% Logistic: 2.0% 5.3% 2.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.1% 3.7% 2.9% 1.9% 2.4% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/19/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/19/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 39 39 39 38 38 36 35 35 34 36 36 18HR AGO 40 39 38 38 38 37 37 35 34 34 33 35 35 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 36 35 35 33 32 32 31 33 33 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 29 29 27 26 26 25 27 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT