* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/19/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 32 32 32 31 31 29 30 31 33 35 V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 32 32 32 31 31 29 30 31 33 35 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 32 31 30 27 25 23 21 20 20 20 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 18 21 23 22 25 30 25 22 20 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 3 2 6 5 4 3 2 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 215 228 238 244 256 278 276 294 308 331 2 4 10 SST (C) 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.7 29.1 29.4 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 124 126 129 131 133 135 138 141 147 152 156 162 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 118 121 122 125 127 128 129 131 131 134 140 140 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 46 46 45 42 39 41 37 43 47 53 56 59 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 11 11 10 8 7 5 5 4 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 29 31 16 4 -3 -26 -57 -64 -86 -83 -83 -62 -35 200 MB DIV 16 2 -12 -6 -8 -16 -16 -37 -28 -26 6 -9 41 700-850 TADV 8 7 7 12 13 20 19 12 16 8 7 9 5 LAND (KM) 1724 1706 1697 1698 1700 1617 1422 1256 1156 1127 1152 1191 1263 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.3 19.8 21.0 22.2 23.4 24.6 25.6 26.4 27.4 28.6 LONG(DEG W) 43.9 44.8 45.8 46.8 47.9 50.2 52.7 54.9 56.8 58.1 58.7 59.5 60.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 13 13 11 9 6 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 9 10 11 12 17 26 25 27 28 30 30 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -12. -14. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -5. -4. -2. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.0 43.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/19/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.34 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.47 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.64 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.11 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.51 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 37.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.62 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 311.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.63 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 11.4% 7.5% 6.1% 4.3% 6.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.4% 2.8% 2.1% 1.4% 2.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/19/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/19/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 33 32 32 32 32 31 31 29 30 31 33 35 18HR AGO 35 34 33 33 33 33 32 32 30 31 32 34 36 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 31 30 30 28 29 30 32 34 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 25 24 24 22 23 24 26 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT