* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122016 08/19/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 49 52 52 51 50 46 39 34 29 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 49 52 52 51 50 46 39 34 29 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 45 45 44 42 39 37 33 28 23 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 14 12 8 6 7 11 11 10 12 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 0 1 0 -1 -2 4 5 2 5 7 SHEAR DIR 40 46 49 53 71 66 61 88 121 91 86 113 125 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.4 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.1 25.3 24.8 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 144 141 140 135 130 126 125 123 115 109 105 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 71 68 66 68 66 61 61 57 59 55 51 45 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 14 12 13 12 12 12 11 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -16 -11 -6 -7 -6 -5 -16 -26 -49 -59 -70 -57 200 MB DIV 27 25 34 31 27 -1 -9 -7 0 -20 -9 -19 -6 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -6 -6 -3 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 502 465 437 426 418 410 421 415 443 473 536 607 683 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.1 19.6 19.9 20.1 20.7 21.3 21.6 21.6 22.0 22.8 23.1 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 111.5 111.9 112.3 112.5 112.7 113.2 113.9 114.4 114.9 115.8 117.1 118.3 119.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 3 3 4 4 2 3 6 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 10 7 5 4 3 3 1 1 3 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 0. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 9. 12. 12. 11. 10. 6. -1. -6. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.6 111.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122016 KAY 08/19/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.62 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.08 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.66 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.40 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.27 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 136.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.71 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.28 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 23.0% 15.7% 10.6% 8.5% 12.1% 11.8% Logistic: 3.3% 11.0% 5.1% 4.0% 1.9% 3.1% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 11.7% 7.0% 4.9% 3.5% 5.1% 4.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122016 KAY 08/19/16 18 UTC ##