* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/20/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 35 36 34 35 33 34 33 35 36 41 V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 35 36 34 35 33 34 33 35 36 41 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 32 32 31 28 26 24 23 22 22 23 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 22 23 20 23 28 27 21 22 18 18 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 2 6 9 3 7 1 9 1 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 230 239 246 260 272 277 288 306 312 343 18 18 360 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.5 29.1 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 132 134 135 136 139 145 153 159 162 166 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 121 124 127 128 126 128 133 138 138 138 142 138 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 700-500 MB RH 47 45 43 39 38 37 40 43 51 55 61 61 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 9 8 6 6 4 4 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 30 18 8 0 -6 -35 -34 -63 -56 -71 -55 -52 -41 200 MB DIV 5 -12 -5 -8 1 -12 -42 -24 -32 -1 1 18 17 700-850 TADV 7 8 12 13 15 19 8 12 4 5 7 3 0 LAND (KM) 1698 1685 1676 1684 1628 1474 1285 1136 1059 1045 1050 1125 1259 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.8 20.4 21.5 22.5 23.7 25.1 26.1 26.7 27.7 29.1 LONG(DEG W) 45.0 46.1 47.1 48.3 49.5 52.0 54.2 56.4 58.5 60.0 60.9 61.4 61.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 12 12 12 10 7 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 11 12 13 25 23 22 26 35 46 34 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -4. -8. -9. -12. -13. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. -1. 0. -2. -1. -2. 0. 1. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.4 45.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/20/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.31 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.49 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.72 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.09 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.55 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 59.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.41 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 319.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.62 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 12.0% 7.6% 6.0% 4.3% 6.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 4.5% 2.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.5% 3.4% 2.5% 1.4% 2.2% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/20/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/20/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 34 35 36 34 35 33 34 33 35 36 41 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 36 34 35 33 34 33 35 36 41 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 31 32 30 31 30 32 33 38 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 24 25 23 24 23 25 26 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT