* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/20/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 36 35 35 36 34 36 35 37 39 43 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 36 35 35 36 34 36 35 37 39 43 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 33 32 29 27 26 25 24 24 25 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 23 24 22 22 25 24 22 21 22 20 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 5 6 3 7 4 3 4 1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 239 244 257 273 280 280 292 302 330 17 11 8 296 SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.8 29.2 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 130 132 135 135 135 138 142 149 155 163 166 168 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 125 126 127 127 129 131 135 137 143 143 144 136 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 45 40 40 39 39 37 39 42 51 58 64 66 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 12 10 9 8 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 19 7 5 -3 -25 -42 -42 -53 -44 -37 -29 -35 -41 200 MB DIV -6 2 6 0 -19 -31 -23 -25 -25 12 11 35 -3 700-850 TADV 10 13 16 15 14 15 3 5 1 5 -1 4 0 LAND (KM) 1692 1689 1686 1631 1587 1350 1140 1009 957 967 1010 1120 1291 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.4 19.9 20.5 21.1 22.1 23.1 24.1 25.1 26.1 27.0 28.2 29.8 LONG(DEG W) 46.1 47.3 48.4 49.5 50.7 53.4 56.0 58.2 60.0 61.4 62.5 63.0 63.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 13 12 10 9 8 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 12 14 17 25 19 26 31 51 42 29 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. -1. 1. 0. 2. 4. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.9 46.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/20/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.26 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.56 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.72 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.56 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 74.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.25 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 329.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.61 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 13.1% 8.3% 6.3% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 3.9% 1.7% 0.9% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.7% 3.3% 2.4% 1.5% 0.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/20/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/20/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 36 36 35 35 36 34 36 35 37 39 43 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 33 33 34 32 34 33 35 37 41 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 30 30 31 29 31 30 32 34 38 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 24 25 23 25 24 26 28 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT