* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122016 08/20/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 48 48 49 48 47 43 40 33 27 22 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 48 48 49 48 47 43 40 33 27 22 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 47 46 44 41 37 33 29 24 19 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 5 6 4 4 4 9 4 6 9 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 4 0 0 0 -2 1 3 3 8 9 10 SHEAR DIR 54 56 79 92 84 69 125 146 179 64 83 72 72 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.7 26.3 25.7 25.1 24.6 24.4 23.9 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 138 136 133 128 124 119 112 107 105 99 95 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 65 65 64 59 56 55 50 49 47 45 44 43 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 16 15 15 14 14 12 11 9 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -8 0 0 -3 -5 -14 -24 -39 -59 -69 -83 -83 200 MB DIV 29 23 38 27 -6 -2 -32 -20 -27 -28 -17 -5 -8 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -1 0 0 0 1 3 6 4 4 2 0 LAND (KM) 485 482 484 495 509 498 526 568 635 692 752 822 901 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.6 21.2 21.6 22.2 22.7 23.0 23.2 23.4 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 112.8 113.2 113.5 113.9 114.3 115.2 116.1 117.1 118.2 119.4 120.5 121.6 122.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 3 2 2 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 2. -2. -5. -12. -18. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.4 112.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122016 KAY 08/20/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.50 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.05 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.52 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.23 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 215.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.60 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.12 -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 22.0% 16.5% 11.6% 9.7% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 5.1% 3.1% 1.6% 0.6% 1.4% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 9.1% 6.5% 4.4% 3.4% 4.8% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122016 KAY 08/20/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##