* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/20/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 33 32 32 32 33 34 36 35 37 38 V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 33 32 32 32 33 34 36 35 37 38 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 32 30 27 25 24 24 23 23 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 28 25 26 26 27 25 17 22 20 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 6 7 4 5 1 4 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 257 273 280 278 285 296 324 1 17 10 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.7 29.2 29.7 30.0 30.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 135 135 135 136 141 148 156 164 168 168 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 126 126 126 127 130 136 142 145 145 142 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 39 40 39 38 39 42 49 56 65 67 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -3 -15 -35 -49 -44 -60 -38 -18 -8 -18 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 1 -4 -20 -14 -36 -20 -11 8 14 16 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 17 16 16 21 7 5 1 -1 0 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1751 1733 1679 1605 1492 1275 1097 977 929 987 1094 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.6 21.1 21.7 22.2 23.2 24.2 25.1 26.0 27.0 28.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.2 48.4 49.5 50.8 52.0 54.6 57.2 59.7 62.0 63.2 63.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 12 9 7 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 10 15 17 24 25 25 29 52 38 31 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 0. 2. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.0 47.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/20/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.09 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.25 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.77 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.57 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 73.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.27 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 344.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.60 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 10.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 3.7% 2.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.7% 2.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/20/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/20/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 34 33 32 32 32 33 34 36 35 37 38 18HR AGO 35 34 33 32 31 31 31 32 33 35 34 36 37 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 29 29 29 30 31 33 32 34 35 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 24 24 25 26 28 27 29 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT