* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122016 08/20/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 47 47 47 42 35 30 24 21 20 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 48 47 47 47 42 35 30 24 21 20 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 44 43 41 37 33 27 21 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 3 3 4 4 5 2 6 5 6 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 0 1 -3 2 4 6 9 10 9 8 SHEAR DIR 83 91 103 36 49 124 142 73 72 89 68 122 138 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.2 25.6 24.9 24.2 23.8 23.4 23.1 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 135 132 130 124 117 111 103 99 95 91 88 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -52.2 -52.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 65 60 57 56 54 48 48 44 42 39 38 34 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 14 13 13 14 11 8 6 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -2 1 -4 1 -9 -20 -43 -52 -65 -78 -80 -72 200 MB DIV 27 16 8 2 6 -37 -32 -30 -23 -28 -14 3 -3 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 3 2 3 5 2 6 2 2 -2 LAND (KM) 432 447 468 477 469 503 562 622 670 763 903 1018 1094 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.4 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.8 22.3 23.0 23.5 23.8 23.7 23.7 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 112.9 113.4 113.8 114.3 114.7 116.0 117.1 118.4 119.7 121.2 122.8 124.1 125.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -5. -9. -12. -15. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. -3. -10. -15. -21. -24. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.1 112.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122016 KAY 08/20/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.47 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.71 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.85 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.16 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 251.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.55 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.29 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 25.9% 18.6% 12.0% 11.6% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 6.6% 5.4% 3.6% 1.8% 2.0% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 10.9% 8.0% 5.2% 4.4% 5.2% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122016 KAY 08/20/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##