* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/21/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 45 44 43 41 42 43 45 46 48 49 48 V (KT) LAND 45 46 45 44 43 41 42 43 45 46 48 49 48 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 47 46 44 40 37 36 37 37 39 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 30 30 29 29 25 19 20 13 14 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 5 4 4 6 1 3 0 0 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 277 280 279 286 289 309 356 3 340 273 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.8 29.3 29.8 30.0 29.9 29.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 138 139 142 149 157 166 169 167 159 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 126 128 129 131 137 142 147 148 144 135 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.0 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 40 38 40 41 43 51 57 64 66 67 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -38 -49 -48 -46 -58 -31 -19 -18 -34 -24 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 -20 -25 -28 -35 -14 -17 5 11 23 26 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 14 16 14 6 2 1 -1 -1 -8 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1701 1598 1484 1375 1275 1100 990 973 1045 1144 1123 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.1 22.6 23.1 23.6 24.5 25.4 26.4 27.6 28.8 30.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.6 50.9 52.2 53.5 54.8 57.4 59.9 61.9 63.4 64.6 65.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 19 27 29 26 24 32 51 31 37 28 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.5 49.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/21/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.15 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.01 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.50 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 70.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 431.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 3.7% 2.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/21/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/21/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 45 44 43 41 42 43 45 46 48 49 48 18HR AGO 45 44 43 42 41 39 40 41 43 44 46 47 46 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 39 37 38 39 41 42 44 45 44 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 32 33 34 36 37 39 40 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT