* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/21/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 37 36 36 35 36 39 43 49 55 58 58 V (KT) LAND 40 39 37 36 36 35 36 39 43 49 55 58 58 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 37 36 34 31 30 29 31 34 38 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 31 29 26 26 21 17 10 12 7 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 7 4 2 0 -2 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 276 276 280 282 284 290 312 350 335 340 265 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.9 29.4 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 139 142 145 150 158 166 169 169 165 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 126 129 132 134 136 142 148 148 146 140 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 39 39 41 44 45 55 61 64 68 68 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 7 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -46 -43 -36 -42 -44 -25 -17 -9 -6 -15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -18 -21 -23 -32 -18 -4 7 4 12 45 40 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 17 12 6 3 3 0 0 -5 -2 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1585 1476 1374 1258 1153 999 929 907 969 1046 1085 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.4 22.8 23.3 23.7 24.5 25.2 26.0 27.1 28.3 29.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.0 52.2 53.4 54.8 56.2 58.7 60.6 62.5 64.4 65.7 66.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 13 11 10 10 9 8 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 27 28 26 22 26 37 48 37 44 32 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 764 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 17. 19. 21. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -1. 3. 9. 15. 18. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.9 51.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/21/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.01 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.19 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.73 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.55 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 74.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.26 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 369.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.57 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 9.2% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.6% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/21/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/21/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 37 36 36 35 36 39 43 49 55 58 58 18HR AGO 40 39 37 36 36 35 36 39 43 49 55 58 58 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 35 34 35 38 42 48 54 57 57 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 29 30 33 37 43 49 52 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT