* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122016 08/21/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 39 39 38 36 30 26 20 16 17 17 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 39 39 38 36 30 26 20 16 17 17 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 37 36 35 32 29 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 0 2 1 3 4 1 7 7 7 5 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 -5 1 3 5 7 7 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 148 125 41 85 148 176 312 29 48 53 67 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.2 25.6 24.9 24.4 23.7 23.3 23.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 129 127 124 118 110 106 98 94 92 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 53 49 46 44 41 36 33 31 28 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 13 12 12 11 8 6 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 1 5 -3 -13 -7 -34 -54 -66 -80 -87 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 6 10 -11 -30 -37 -34 -36 -34 -27 -20 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 3 2 3 7 5 6 6 3 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 455 464 465 480 503 580 653 715 825 938 1046 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.1 21.3 21.6 21.8 22.3 22.8 23.3 23.6 23.7 23.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.8 114.3 114.8 115.4 116.0 117.3 118.6 120.1 121.8 123.2 124.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 6 7 7 6 8 7 6 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -12. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -14. -20. -24. -23. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.8 113.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122016 KAY 08/21/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.47 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.01 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.68 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.96 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.06 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 283.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.50 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.32 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 22.6% 16.1% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 4.1% 5.0% 3.1% 1.6% 1.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 8.9% 7.0% 4.3% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122016 KAY 08/21/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##