* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/21/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 29 28 28 28 32 35 40 45 49 51 V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 29 28 28 28 32 35 40 45 49 51 V (KT) LGEM 35 31 28 26 25 23 22 21 22 24 26 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 30 28 26 26 22 18 9 12 11 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 4 5 7 4 7 2 0 -1 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 273 278 283 284 286 294 332 342 339 274 253 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.2 29.7 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 143 145 149 155 164 169 170 167 157 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 131 132 132 135 140 145 148 148 144 134 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 39 41 44 45 52 60 66 68 69 63 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -46 -41 -45 -50 -34 -24 -7 -16 -3 -6 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -18 -19 -33 -21 -10 -14 7 12 33 27 41 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 10 3 3 4 0 -1 -2 -7 -6 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1445 1332 1229 1144 1070 964 929 951 1014 1099 984 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.1 23.6 24.0 24.4 25.1 26.0 26.8 27.7 29.0 30.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.6 54.0 55.3 56.5 57.7 59.9 62.0 63.7 65.1 66.2 66.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 11 11 9 8 8 8 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 28 22 20 22 29 52 43 42 41 24 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 799 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 19. 22. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -3. 0. 5. 10. 14. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.6 52.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/21/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.01 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.62 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 68.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 315.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.8% 1.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/21/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/21/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 30 29 28 28 28 32 35 40 45 49 51 18HR AGO 35 34 32 31 30 30 30 34 37 42 47 51 53 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 29 29 29 33 36 41 46 50 52 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 24 24 28 31 36 41 45 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT