* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/21/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 31 31 32 34 38 43 47 54 57 58 V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 31 31 32 34 38 43 47 54 57 58 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 29 28 26 26 26 28 31 34 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 30 27 24 20 20 13 15 9 20 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 4 7 6 5 2 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 273 276 280 283 289 307 6 345 346 283 249 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.5 29.9 30.0 30.1 29.8 29.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 144 146 149 152 160 167 169 170 165 153 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 133 135 136 137 143 148 148 147 141 129 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 40 41 43 45 56 63 66 68 66 61 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -39 -43 -49 -46 -30 -14 -11 -5 -7 -8 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -36 -23 -13 -14 1 26 6 30 17 52 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 3 0 1 2 -2 2 -10 -1 -4 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1308 1197 1095 1019 956 901 902 962 1016 1055 930 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.5 23.9 24.3 24.6 25.4 26.2 27.1 28.2 29.6 31.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.2 55.6 57.0 58.2 59.4 61.4 63.2 64.9 66.2 67.0 67.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 11 11 9 9 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 23 23 25 28 44 42 38 42 32 26 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 821 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -5. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 3. 8. 12. 19. 22. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.1 54.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/21/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.08 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.23 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.72 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.01 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.64 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 72.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.28 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 315.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.63 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 9.3% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 3.0% 1.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 4.1% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/21/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/21/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 33 32 31 31 32 34 38 43 47 54 57 58 18HR AGO 35 34 33 32 32 33 35 39 44 48 55 58 59 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 30 31 33 37 42 46 53 56 57 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 26 28 32 37 41 48 51 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT