* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/22/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 27 27 28 32 35 38 41 47 51 53 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 27 27 28 32 35 38 41 47 51 53 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 25 24 23 23 24 25 27 29 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 29 25 19 17 17 10 15 16 19 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 6 6 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 275 282 287 288 338 9 345 297 275 251 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.8 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.6 29.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 148 151 155 158 166 169 170 166 160 151 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 137 137 140 142 148 149 147 140 133 125 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -54.0 -54.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 10 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 43 44 47 52 58 65 64 61 57 53 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -45 -49 -48 -33 -28 -5 -7 -3 -8 -7 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -31 -19 -7 -18 -22 2 15 15 14 31 14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 0 0 2 0 -3 -3 -8 -6 0 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1180 1090 1014 964 926 899 967 1014 1084 983 930 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.2 24.6 25.0 25.3 26.0 27.1 28.1 29.1 30.2 31.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.9 57.3 58.6 59.7 60.8 62.7 64.5 66.0 67.0 67.4 67.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 11 10 10 9 7 6 6 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 24 25 30 39 45 36 42 37 28 26 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 842 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 22. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 21. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.7 55.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/22/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.17 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.49 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.57 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.02 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.72 0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 74.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.26 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 247.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.69 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 10.7% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 4.4% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/22/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/22/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 28 27 27 27 28 32 35 38 41 47 51 53 18HR AGO 30 29 28 28 28 29 33 36 39 42 48 52 54 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 27 31 34 37 40 46 50 52 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 21 25 28 31 34 40 44 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT