* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/22/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 31 33 36 41 45 48 50 53 54 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 31 33 36 41 45 48 50 53 54 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 26 26 25 26 27 30 32 35 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 27 22 18 17 15 12 8 21 19 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 4 2 1 1 3 0 0 -1 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 282 292 303 314 11 359 319 269 256 283 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.7 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.8 29.5 29.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 152 155 160 164 169 170 170 164 157 155 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 140 144 147 149 148 146 137 129 125 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.0 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 43 45 51 54 61 63 63 60 55 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 5 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -51 -46 -33 -36 -20 -15 -6 -5 -2 3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -5 -17 -26 -3 21 -6 35 3 36 -1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 1 -5 -1 -3 0 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1064 992 934 910 900 933 971 1027 1003 909 866 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.6 24.9 25.4 25.8 26.7 27.5 28.5 29.6 30.4 30.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.6 58.9 60.1 61.1 62.2 64.0 65.6 66.8 67.7 68.2 68.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 10 10 9 8 7 5 3 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 26 32 42 47 36 40 43 34 28 27 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 832 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 22. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 18. 20. 23. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.2 57.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/22/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.23 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.22 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.24 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.65 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.05 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.75 0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 71.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.29 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 241.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.70 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 10.8% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 4.6% 2.4% 1.0% 0.0% 1.1% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 5.1% 2.9% 0.3% 0.0% 2.3% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/22/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/22/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 29 29 31 33 36 41 45 48 50 53 54 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 31 33 36 41 45 48 50 53 54 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 28 30 33 38 42 45 47 50 51 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 24 27 32 36 39 41 44 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT