* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/22/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 28 29 29 33 36 42 45 48 50 54 57 V (KT) LAND 30 28 28 29 29 33 36 42 45 48 50 54 57 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 26 26 26 27 29 32 34 36 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 22 17 16 15 8 9 13 20 19 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 2 1 3 2 1 0 -1 -1 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 288 301 310 341 23 353 256 271 271 330 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 161 164 166 167 169 169 166 162 157 156 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 146 147 148 149 148 145 140 134 128 127 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 45 50 53 57 62 60 57 54 50 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -45 -32 -36 -35 -9 -13 -12 -19 -7 -11 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -10 -23 -10 2 12 8 16 9 8 -29 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -2 -4 0 -4 -3 -2 -4 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 969 924 892 883 888 950 998 1054 930 883 894 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.5 24.9 25.3 25.7 26.1 27.0 28.1 29.2 30.2 30.9 31.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.1 60.3 61.4 62.3 63.3 65.0 66.4 67.4 68.1 68.1 67.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 10 9 9 9 8 6 5 3 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 33 43 47 42 39 43 37 29 27 27 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 826 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 2. 0. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. -1. 3. 6. 12. 15. 18. 20. 24. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.5 59.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/22/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.36 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.68 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.57 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.80 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 61.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.39 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 225.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.72 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 14.5% 9.1% 7.1% 5.2% 7.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 5.3% 2.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.3% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 6.6% 3.8% 2.6% 1.7% 2.6% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/22/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/22/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 28 28 29 29 33 36 42 45 48 50 54 57 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 30 34 37 43 46 49 51 55 58 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 31 34 40 43 46 48 52 55 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 24 27 33 36 39 41 45 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT