* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/22/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 39 44 49 54 55 59 62 63 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 39 44 49 54 55 59 62 63 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 32 35 38 42 45 48 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 20 17 15 11 10 5 18 18 17 9 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 1 2 1 3 1 2 -1 -1 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 289 313 348 10 357 273 272 268 297 14 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 164 166 167 167 169 166 163 159 155 151 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 148 148 148 148 147 142 136 131 127 123 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 50 54 57 59 62 60 57 53 48 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 6 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -35 -36 -30 -21 -16 -13 -11 0 0 -24 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -11 -8 -6 -1 13 -4 29 -10 45 -21 10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -3 1 0 1 -1 0 -2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 897 870 861 874 898 941 1034 974 886 816 758 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.3 25.7 26.1 26.5 27.5 28.7 29.6 30.4 31.1 31.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.7 61.8 62.9 63.8 64.7 66.3 67.3 68.1 68.5 68.8 68.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 9 8 7 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 43 45 43 42 43 44 39 33 32 39 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 829 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 19. 24. 25. 29. 32. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.9 60.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/22/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.45 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.28 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.61 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.81 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 47.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.52 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 203.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 14.3% 8.8% 6.8% 4.6% 7.4% 15.8% Logistic: 2.7% 12.3% 7.1% 3.5% 0.0% 4.8% 7.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 9.0% 5.3% 3.4% 1.5% 4.1% 7.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/22/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/22/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 35 39 44 49 54 55 59 62 63 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 33 37 42 47 52 53 57 60 61 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 33 38 43 48 49 53 56 57 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 31 36 41 42 46 49 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT