* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072016 08/23/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 51 58 70 74 80 79 74 77 82 84 V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 51 58 70 74 80 79 74 77 82 84 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 47 51 61 68 72 68 63 59 60 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 10 6 3 7 25 35 33 17 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -2 -2 6 6 1 4 2 0 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 101 96 87 83 87 294 252 253 235 230 216 236 287 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.4 26.8 26.6 27.0 27.6 27.8 28.3 28.9 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 139 135 131 124 122 126 133 136 143 150 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 141 141 135 131 122 118 120 127 129 132 131 130 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.4 -53.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.6 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 70 72 72 73 72 70 69 68 70 68 63 60 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 21 23 24 25 28 27 30 30 29 32 34 34 850 MB ENV VOR 123 124 128 131 128 100 62 46 53 51 59 42 47 200 MB DIV 86 86 73 73 73 71 93 105 86 43 7 23 42 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -2 -3 -2 -2 6 16 38 25 8 0 0 LAND (KM) 1365 1523 1683 1832 1982 1887 1835 1837 1892 1840 1640 1555 1543 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.5 14.0 15.6 17.3 19.1 20.9 22.9 25.1 26.6 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 29.9 31.4 33.0 34.4 35.9 38.6 41.3 43.7 46.1 48.7 51.6 53.5 54.4 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 15 16 15 9 5 HEAT CONTENT 12 15 14 12 13 15 12 13 5 20 27 28 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 18.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 17. 19. 21. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 6. 3. -2. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 8. 12. 11. 9. 13. 14. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 23. 35. 39. 45. 44. 39. 42. 47. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.4 29.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 SEVEN 08/23/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.73 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.67 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.40 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.50 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.68 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 119.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 24.9% 12.1% 10.7% 8.1% 10.5% 21.7% Logistic: 8.0% 32.4% 14.1% 4.6% 0.0% 10.8% 8.5% Bayesian: 4.3% 14.3% 4.6% 0.3% 0.2% 2.3% 5.7% Consensus: 6.3% 23.9% 10.3% 5.2% 2.8% 7.9% 12.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 SEVEN 08/23/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 40 46 51 58 70 74 80 79 74 77 82 84 18HR AGO 35 34 40 45 52 64 68 74 73 68 71 76 78 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 43 55 59 65 64 59 62 67 69 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 32 44 48 54 53 48 51 56 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT