* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/23/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 34 39 45 51 53 57 60 63 65 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 34 39 45 51 53 57 60 63 65 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 32 34 38 42 45 48 51 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 18 13 8 7 4 18 15 16 10 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 -1 0 4 0 2 0 0 -2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 300 348 26 44 349 296 274 279 316 355 2 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 168 168 170 169 165 164 160 160 159 159 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 150 150 149 150 148 142 137 131 130 129 130 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 58 60 62 59 58 55 54 49 49 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -25 -16 -2 -11 7 0 11 8 -5 -4 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 0 18 12 -1 19 3 10 -21 11 -20 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 1 2 1 1 -3 0 -7 -3 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 851 854 872 881 887 955 914 825 773 723 660 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.0 26.3 26.8 27.2 28.2 29.1 29.8 30.2 30.4 30.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.9 64.0 65.0 66.0 66.9 68.5 69.5 70.0 70.3 70.8 71.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 8 5 3 2 3 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 44 43 42 45 55 46 40 37 35 35 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 21. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.6 62.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/23/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.61 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 44.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.18 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.47 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.14 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.82 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 19.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 176.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 14.2% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 15.5% Logistic: 1.6% 7.7% 3.4% 1.1% 0.0% 1.4% 3.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 7.4% 4.1% 0.4% 0.0% 3.1% 6.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/23/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/23/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 34 39 45 51 53 57 60 63 65 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 33 38 44 50 52 56 59 62 64 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 34 40 46 48 52 55 58 60 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 33 39 41 45 48 51 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT