* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/23/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 57 63 68 77 81 81 80 80 77 81 82 V (KT) LAND 45 51 57 63 68 77 81 81 80 80 77 81 82 V (KT) LGEM 45 52 58 64 69 77 79 77 73 68 67 71 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 9 4 2 5 14 23 34 24 15 8 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -1 2 2 2 6 -2 -1 -2 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 102 85 84 95 247 287 255 242 235 213 224 255 295 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.7 27.3 27.7 28.0 28.6 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 132 129 126 122 123 129 134 138 146 151 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 138 132 128 124 118 119 123 126 129 132 130 129 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -53.4 -52.9 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.6 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 71 70 71 71 70 68 67 68 70 67 64 63 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 24 25 28 29 30 30 32 30 33 34 850 MB ENV VOR 125 125 124 117 108 74 45 39 31 39 26 32 23 200 MB DIV 67 51 44 49 57 93 113 119 69 56 12 24 20 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 0 0 3 13 24 43 23 4 0 8 LAND (KM) 1535 1694 1855 1995 1935 1853 1854 1888 1940 1801 1700 1665 1667 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.4 13.8 14.4 14.9 16.4 18.4 20.3 22.2 24.2 26.3 27.8 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 31.6 33.1 34.7 36.0 37.4 39.9 42.4 44.9 47.2 49.5 51.6 53.1 53.9 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 14 14 15 16 15 14 15 12 8 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 11 13 13 8 16 6 6 24 33 27 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 462 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 20.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 7. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 23. 32. 36. 36. 35. 35. 32. 36. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.9 31.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/23/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 6.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.83 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.61 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.30 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.37 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.53 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 170.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.77 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 27.9% 15.6% 12.2% 9.4% 22.3% 26.3% Logistic: 15.4% 39.0% 22.2% 11.7% 0.0% 17.4% 6.6% Bayesian: 7.9% 18.3% 5.5% 0.9% 0.9% 8.1% 10.8% Consensus: 10.3% 28.4% 14.4% 8.2% 3.4% 15.9% 14.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/23/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 6( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 51 57 63 68 77 81 81 80 80 77 81 82 18HR AGO 45 44 50 56 61 70 74 74 73 73 70 74 75 12HR AGO 45 42 41 47 52 61 65 65 64 64 61 65 66 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 40 49 53 53 52 52 49 53 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT