* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/23/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 26 33 38 46 51 57 63 67 70 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 26 33 38 46 51 57 63 67 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 24 26 30 33 37 41 45 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 11 6 5 5 12 17 14 11 6 5 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 0 4 2 0 -1 1 -1 1 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 338 20 37 346 335 238 267 271 323 305 2 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 170 167 164 163 161 161 157 157 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 151 149 149 150 145 139 135 132 131 126 126 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 61 62 59 59 57 53 52 48 49 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -17 -3 -15 -10 9 -1 10 4 -14 -11 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 16 7 -6 -6 25 0 -6 -10 -2 3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 1 2 2 0 -3 -2 -8 -2 -7 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 847 867 864 875 901 975 878 791 719 662 639 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.3 26.6 27.1 27.6 28.6 29.3 29.8 30.2 30.5 30.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.0 65.0 66.0 67.0 67.9 69.2 69.8 70.5 71.1 71.6 71.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 8 6 4 4 3 1 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 49 49 48 55 51 46 38 35 34 34 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 736 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 8. 13. 21. 26. 32. 38. 42. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.9 64.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/23/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.79 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 48.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.31 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.57 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.43 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.13 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.86 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 140.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 16.7% 11.0% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 9.2% 3.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.6% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 8.7% 5.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/23/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/23/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 24 25 26 33 38 46 51 57 63 67 70 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 33 38 46 51 57 63 67 70 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 30 35 43 48 54 60 64 67 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 23 28 36 41 47 53 57 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT