* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/23/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 69 76 80 86 86 80 78 78 78 80 86 V (KT) LAND 55 63 69 76 80 86 86 80 78 78 78 80 86 V (KT) LGEM 55 64 72 79 84 86 82 76 72 68 69 76 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 4 3 7 6 22 33 30 18 9 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 3 2 6 5 3 0 0 -2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 89 85 129 214 272 251 246 239 224 211 230 249 262 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.7 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.4 29.0 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 131 127 125 123 122 128 133 137 143 152 154 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 132 127 124 120 118 122 126 127 130 134 131 127 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -53.3 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.9 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 8 8 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 67 65 66 65 64 64 64 64 66 64 62 59 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 25 25 28 28 27 27 30 30 32 36 850 MB ENV VOR 132 126 123 112 106 67 36 29 32 31 26 14 25 200 MB DIV 43 29 34 62 100 101 97 74 37 18 12 18 40 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -1 0 3 13 24 32 29 5 0 2 8 LAND (KM) 1751 1917 1957 1889 1835 1794 1820 1930 1836 1728 1655 1682 1754 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.1 14.6 15.4 16.1 17.7 19.5 21.6 23.8 25.8 27.4 28.9 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 33.7 35.3 36.9 38.3 39.8 42.4 44.7 46.8 49.0 51.0 52.9 53.9 54.2 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 15 14 14 15 14 13 10 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 10 13 8 16 8 5 24 33 28 28 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 39.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 2. -1. -2. -1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 5. 6. 4. 4. 7. 7. 8. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 21. 25. 31. 31. 25. 23. 23. 23. 25. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.5 33.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/23/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 14.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.89 6.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.82 6.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.41 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.92 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.37 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.41 1.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 255.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.69 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.1 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 7.3 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 7.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 45% is 9.2 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 17.4% 47.4% 36.9% 30.7% 21.4% 44.8% 26.8% Logistic: 31.5% 46.3% 27.3% 17.7% 0.0% 12.1% 3.6% Bayesian: 44.0% 25.0% 9.7% 3.5% 5.3% 7.9% 2.2% Consensus: 31.0% 39.6% 24.6% 17.3% 8.9% 21.6% 10.9% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/23/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 7( 10) 10( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 63 69 76 80 86 86 80 78 78 78 80 86 18HR AGO 55 54 60 67 71 77 77 71 69 69 69 71 77 12HR AGO 55 52 51 58 62 68 68 62 60 60 60 62 68 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 49 55 55 49 47 47 47 49 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT