* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/23/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 71 74 76 75 72 75 77 82 89 92 V (KT) LAND 55 61 66 71 74 76 75 72 75 77 82 89 92 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 67 71 74 76 73 69 66 69 77 89 97 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 3 10 10 16 23 29 21 13 3 9 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 0 2 5 5 1 -4 -6 -6 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 57 88 283 293 287 271 249 229 200 194 291 334 321 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.9 27.5 27.7 28.1 28.7 29.0 29.1 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 129 125 123 122 125 132 134 139 147 151 152 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 130 124 120 118 120 126 125 127 131 130 129 122 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -53.6 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -53.6 -53.0 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 66 64 64 65 65 62 59 56 55 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 23 25 24 24 24 23 25 26 28 33 37 850 MB ENV VOR 119 115 107 98 81 42 28 20 35 25 31 12 6 200 MB DIV 11 18 53 78 102 96 104 25 47 10 26 9 53 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 3 7 17 28 43 28 0 0 -1 6 LAND (KM) 1897 1971 1882 1838 1811 1815 1920 1955 1803 1727 1715 1793 1708 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.6 15.2 16.0 16.8 18.6 20.9 23.1 25.0 26.8 28.3 29.9 31.2 LONG(DEG W) 35.1 36.7 38.3 39.6 41.0 43.3 45.5 47.6 49.8 51.6 52.9 53.4 53.1 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 15 15 15 15 14 13 11 8 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 13 9 9 13 5 10 27 34 27 27 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 18.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 10. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 20. 17. 20. 22. 27. 34. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.9 35.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/23/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.87 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.75 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.34 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.92 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.37 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.38 0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 260.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.68 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.3 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 28.8% 18.7% 16.3% 10.6% 25.9% 18.8% Logistic: 13.3% 22.3% 10.3% 6.7% 0.0% 4.1% 2.0% Bayesian: 13.0% 6.2% 2.7% 0.7% 0.7% 2.5% 1.4% Consensus: 11.6% 19.1% 10.6% 7.9% 3.8% 10.8% 7.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/23/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/23/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 5( 8) 5( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 61 66 71 74 76 75 72 75 77 82 89 92 18HR AGO 55 54 59 64 67 69 68 65 68 70 75 82 85 12HR AGO 55 52 51 56 59 61 60 57 60 62 67 74 77 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 50 49 46 49 51 56 63 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT