* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/24/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 65 67 67 64 63 69 75 82 86 88 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 65 67 67 64 63 69 75 82 86 88 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 60 63 64 65 61 59 60 67 79 90 93 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 9 9 10 22 28 20 5 6 8 10 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 2 5 6 5 -1 -1 -8 -4 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 56 307 305 297 279 259 237 213 197 311 292 324 301 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.6 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.4 28.9 29.2 29.2 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 124 122 122 128 132 136 144 150 154 154 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 124 121 119 118 123 125 127 131 131 132 129 123 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.7 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -53.6 -52.9 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 66 67 68 67 67 67 68 66 63 60 56 58 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 23 24 24 24 22 22 25 26 30 32 34 850 MB ENV VOR 105 96 86 68 50 24 18 11 25 16 10 14 3 200 MB DIV 14 41 69 90 103 88 65 22 28 20 23 27 1 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 3 5 23 38 35 -4 -2 0 0 4 LAND (KM) 1979 1903 1841 1828 1827 1847 1977 1917 1788 1713 1667 1734 1643 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.1 15.7 16.7 17.6 19.5 21.8 24.2 26.3 27.8 28.8 30.1 31.5 LONG(DEG W) 36.5 37.9 39.3 40.5 41.8 44.2 46.2 48.3 50.6 52.5 54.0 54.5 54.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 13 10 7 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 12 7 13 10 5 22 34 26 29 28 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 12. 9. 8. 14. 20. 27. 31. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.4 36.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/24/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.85 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.72 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.45 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.92 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.42 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.35 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 266.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.68 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 21.7% 12.4% 12.4% 10.1% 14.0% 16.5% Logistic: 4.6% 12.7% 5.6% 2.9% 0.0% 1.8% 0.7% Bayesian: 1.9% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% Consensus: 4.5% 12.4% 6.3% 5.1% 3.4% 5.4% 5.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/24/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/24/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 3( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 61 65 67 67 64 63 69 75 82 86 88 18HR AGO 55 54 57 61 63 63 60 59 65 71 78 82 84 12HR AGO 55 52 51 55 57 57 54 53 59 65 72 76 78 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 47 44 43 49 55 62 66 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT