* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/24/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 65 66 66 64 63 70 77 81 84 85 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 65 66 66 64 63 70 77 81 84 85 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 64 65 66 66 64 61 65 74 85 91 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 12 10 12 19 25 15 5 6 10 9 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 4 5 4 2 -1 -3 -6 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 331 331 333 313 278 249 228 191 163 18 335 319 311 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.9 27.4 27.6 28.1 28.8 29.2 29.3 29.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 123 123 125 131 134 140 150 155 155 151 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 123 120 119 121 126 126 130 136 134 130 124 119 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -54.4 -54.7 -55.0 -54.3 -53.8 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.1 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 68 69 67 68 69 68 70 64 58 55 56 55 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 22 25 26 28 30 850 MB ENV VOR 97 85 69 51 33 22 7 9 7 16 0 -2 -2 200 MB DIV 25 53 76 73 80 109 25 17 0 35 11 38 2 700-850 TADV 0 1 -1 -1 9 23 26 12 -3 -5 -7 3 -1 LAND (KM) 1863 1817 1787 1784 1780 1859 1980 1816 1665 1623 1675 1694 1625 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.4 16.2 17.1 18.0 20.2 22.9 25.1 26.9 28.4 29.7 30.7 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 38.0 39.3 40.6 41.8 43.0 45.3 47.3 49.7 52.4 54.2 54.9 55.1 55.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 15 13 9 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 9 14 14 6 7 28 32 27 29 29 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -1. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. 0. 3. 4. 6. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 10. 17. 21. 24. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.6 38.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/24/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.70 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.58 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.60 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.41 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.30 0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 290.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.65 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 20.3% 12.4% 12.4% 9.8% 10.4% 15.4% Logistic: 4.0% 9.2% 3.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.8% 0.5% Bayesian: 2.4% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% Consensus: 4.7% 11.1% 5.6% 4.8% 3.3% 3.9% 5.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/24/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/24/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 3( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 64 65 66 66 64 63 70 77 81 84 85 18HR AGO 60 59 61 62 63 63 61 60 67 74 78 81 82 12HR AGO 60 57 56 57 58 58 56 55 62 69 73 76 77 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 51 49 48 55 62 66 69 70 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT