* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/24/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 62 62 62 59 59 61 67 71 76 76 78 V (KT) LAND 60 61 62 62 62 59 59 61 67 71 76 76 78 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 63 63 62 60 58 59 64 73 84 90 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 13 17 21 28 20 11 5 6 8 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 3 4 3 2 -1 -1 -2 -7 -3 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 314 314 293 265 257 241 220 168 56 29 349 342 326 SST (C) 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.7 27.0 27.5 27.8 28.4 29.0 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 122 123 126 132 136 144 152 156 153 148 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 118 118 118 121 125 127 132 135 133 127 121 115 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -54.6 -55.1 -55.0 -55.0 -54.3 -54.1 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.5 1.1 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 72 70 68 68 61 55 51 52 51 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 20 21 23 25 25 28 850 MB ENV VOR 79 59 43 26 22 6 -5 8 4 0 -14 -30 -24 200 MB DIV 43 70 68 70 95 65 37 7 3 25 5 2 4 700-850 TADV 2 1 3 13 22 24 30 0 -5 -6 -1 -2 3 LAND (KM) 1864 1851 1852 1867 1895 2010 1972 1811 1665 1641 1720 1623 1558 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.6 17.5 18.6 19.6 21.9 24.4 26.4 27.8 29.1 30.4 31.4 32.1 LONG(DEG W) 38.9 40.1 41.3 42.4 43.5 45.7 47.8 50.4 53.1 54.7 55.1 55.1 54.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 15 16 15 12 8 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 10 7 10 16 14 5 19 34 26 28 31 30 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 0. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -1. 1. 7. 11. 16. 16. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.6 38.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/24/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.54 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.55 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.56 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.45 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.28 0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 281.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.66 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 16.9% 11.3% 11.2% 8.7% 9.3% 12.7% Logistic: 3.6% 8.4% 3.6% 1.5% 0.0% 1.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 2.5% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% Consensus: 4.4% 9.1% 5.0% 4.2% 2.9% 3.5% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/24/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/24/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 62 62 62 59 59 61 67 71 76 76 78 18HR AGO 60 59 60 60 60 57 57 59 65 69 74 74 76 12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 56 53 53 55 61 65 70 70 72 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 47 47 49 55 59 64 64 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT