* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/24/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 53 52 49 52 57 64 68 73 75 77 V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 53 52 49 52 57 64 68 73 75 77 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 52 51 48 47 50 58 69 79 82 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 15 23 24 29 8 3 6 9 8 16 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 7 3 5 -4 0 -4 -7 -2 -2 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 295 278 259 248 240 236 219 357 356 333 7 338 321 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.7 27.0 27.3 27.5 28.1 28.8 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 121 121 123 126 129 132 140 150 155 154 148 141 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 117 118 120 123 125 130 135 136 131 123 114 111 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -54.4 -54.2 -53.7 -53.8 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 70 72 72 72 71 69 63 55 50 50 52 53 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 21 22 21 19 20 21 22 23 25 27 31 850 MB ENV VOR 54 37 26 19 11 -13 -6 -7 -8 -19 -13 -26 -38 200 MB DIV 60 65 72 80 99 27 14 19 15 16 6 -6 42 700-850 TADV 4 8 12 19 30 29 8 -8 -2 -5 -1 -1 1 LAND (KM) 1886 1899 1911 1939 1982 2072 1897 1754 1667 1676 1579 1487 1444 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.8 18.9 20.0 21.0 23.4 25.7 27.4 28.8 30.1 31.5 32.3 32.7 LONG(DEG W) 39.9 41.0 42.2 43.3 44.4 46.5 49.1 51.7 54.0 55.4 55.9 56.2 56.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 16 15 13 11 8 6 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 15 12 6 8 32 26 28 29 24 17 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -5. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 1. 3. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -3. 2. 9. 13. 18. 20. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.8 39.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/24/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.41 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.55 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.64 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.92 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.48 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.32 0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 249.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.69 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 15.1% 9.7% 9.3% 7.1% 8.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 6.6% 2.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 7.3% 4.2% 3.4% 2.4% 3.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/24/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/24/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 54 53 52 49 52 57 64 68 73 75 77 18HR AGO 55 54 54 53 52 49 52 57 64 68 73 75 77 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 49 46 49 54 61 65 70 72 74 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 41 44 49 56 60 65 67 69 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT