* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN EP132016 08/24/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 39 44 49 58 64 68 69 70 68 67 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 39 44 49 58 64 68 69 70 68 67 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 41 47 52 56 58 59 60 61 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 9 10 10 11 14 5 3 5 8 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -2 0 -1 3 -2 2 0 0 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 2 355 347 342 336 329 340 314 274 172 139 124 81 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.2 27.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 157 156 155 150 146 145 144 141 137 139 137 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 74 70 69 68 64 57 57 54 50 47 43 43 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 12 12 15 16 17 17 18 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -15 -10 -6 0 11 10 9 15 33 43 60 27 200 MB DIV -4 1 19 21 19 28 33 33 29 8 10 20 -7 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 0 3 -1 0 0 5 6 11 6 4 LAND (KM) 675 727 787 786 787 803 834 897 985 1113 1296 1495 1680 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 7 6 5 7 9 10 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 19 21 22 19 18 13 9 14 11 5 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 23. 25. 27. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 9. 11. 13. 12. 12. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 14. 19. 28. 34. 38. 39. 40. 38. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.0 109.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 THIRTEEN 08/24/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.83 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.25 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.52 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.53 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.15 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 104.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.76 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.53 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 23.3% 16.1% 10.9% 0.0% 12.2% 13.1% Logistic: 4.3% 16.8% 10.5% 3.5% 1.6% 9.7% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 20.3% 7.6% 1.7% 0.6% 1.5% 1.6% Consensus: 4.1% 20.1% 11.4% 5.4% 0.8% 7.8% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 THIRTEEN 08/24/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##