* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/25/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 58 57 56 56 60 67 74 82 86 89 90 V (KT) LAND 60 59 58 57 56 56 60 67 74 82 86 89 90 V (KT) LGEM 60 60 59 58 57 54 56 61 72 84 91 94 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 23 22 31 20 6 5 5 5 12 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 2 4 1 -4 0 -3 -7 -4 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 277 266 254 237 232 228 137 18 333 10 355 333 331 SST (C) 26.6 26.8 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.9 28.6 29.2 29.5 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 122 124 128 131 132 137 147 156 160 159 153 147 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 119 123 124 125 128 135 139 138 133 126 119 115 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.5 -54.9 -54.8 -55.0 -54.2 -53.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.2 0.8 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 70 70 71 71 70 65 57 51 47 48 48 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 19 18 19 19 21 22 25 27 30 33 850 MB ENV VOR 37 25 17 8 -1 -11 4 -5 2 7 -13 -30 -29 200 MB DIV 66 64 68 85 56 22 13 12 14 -6 -7 5 24 700-850 TADV 3 7 14 18 25 14 -5 0 -4 -3 -2 3 4 LAND (KM) 1890 1897 1920 1988 2060 1954 1771 1631 1539 1531 1549 1462 1390 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 19.1 20.1 21.3 22.5 25.0 26.8 28.1 29.0 29.9 30.9 31.6 32.2 LONG(DEG W) 41.5 42.7 43.9 44.9 45.9 48.2 51.1 53.8 56.1 57.5 58.0 58.4 58.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 16 16 15 12 9 6 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 12 15 10 5 5 26 34 26 30 26 23 19 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 16 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -6. -3. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 2. 2. 6. 7. 10. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 7. 14. 22. 26. 29. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.1 41.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/25/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.26 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.42 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.72 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.44 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.30 0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 258.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.68 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 14.4% 9.4% 9.1% 6.5% 0.0% 12.3% Logistic: 1.5% 5.7% 2.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.6% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.6% 6.8% 4.0% 3.3% 2.2% 0.2% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/25/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/25/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 59 58 57 56 56 60 67 74 82 86 89 90 18HR AGO 60 59 58 57 56 56 60 67 74 82 86 89 90 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 54 54 58 65 72 80 84 87 88 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 49 49 53 60 67 75 79 82 83 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT