* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN EP132016 08/25/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 54 63 70 78 81 84 84 81 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 54 63 70 78 81 84 84 81 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 49 54 58 61 64 68 72 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 12 11 10 15 7 4 4 2 7 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 -1 0 1 0 2 1 -4 0 0 4 2 SHEAR DIR 348 334 324 317 297 322 288 282 217 25 62 40 45 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.2 27.3 27.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 156 155 152 148 145 143 141 137 138 138 128 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.2 -52.6 -51.9 -52.3 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 71 68 67 64 61 58 58 55 52 50 53 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 13 15 15 19 22 23 27 28 30 32 32 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -11 -5 1 2 6 -1 8 22 38 38 41 47 200 MB DIV 9 28 37 43 49 36 41 55 40 9 14 6 31 700-850 TADV 2 1 1 3 3 0 2 1 2 0 0 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 720 773 779 775 780 798 851 936 1053 1216 1448 1641 1865 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.0 18.1 17.9 17.9 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 110.4 111.3 112.2 113.0 113.7 114.8 115.9 117.5 119.4 121.6 124.2 126.9 129.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 9 10 11 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 16 18 20 21 20 18 14 9 11 12 6 12 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 17.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 23. 25. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 14. 17. 22. 23. 25. 25. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 24. 33. 40. 48. 51. 54. 54. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 110.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 THIRTEEN 08/25/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.82 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.25 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.62 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.47 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.30 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 115.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.74 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.62 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 25.7% 17.2% 11.5% 0.0% 13.0% 14.0% Logistic: 5.4% 18.4% 12.1% 5.1% 2.4% 8.5% 9.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 21.3% 7.9% 1.5% 0.6% 1.9% 1.2% Consensus: 4.8% 21.8% 12.4% 6.0% 1.0% 7.8% 8.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 THIRTEEN 08/25/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##