* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/25/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 64 62 59 61 65 70 72 74 79 86 85 V (KT) LAND 65 65 64 62 59 61 65 70 72 74 79 86 85 V (KT) LGEM 65 65 65 62 60 59 62 67 76 85 92 94 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 24 30 30 13 7 7 11 6 5 2 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 4 2 -2 0 -1 0 -5 -3 -1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 257 244 233 231 222 204 111 56 14 54 336 24 305 SST (C) 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.6 28.1 28.7 29.2 29.6 29.6 29.2 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 124 127 131 132 133 140 148 155 162 161 153 147 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 121 124 124 125 129 134 136 140 137 127 119 114 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -54.1 -53.6 -52.8 -52.6 -51.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 68 69 69 67 66 57 51 44 43 42 40 40 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 21 19 21 21 23 23 23 25 30 32 850 MB ENV VOR 26 19 13 0 -11 -8 -12 -4 -4 -4 -24 -22 -25 200 MB DIV 58 97 99 46 10 14 -4 21 0 1 -25 20 7 700-850 TADV 12 19 20 31 25 9 -3 -1 -6 -1 -2 1 4 LAND (KM) 1879 1911 1958 2020 2028 1843 1685 1572 1509 1496 1520 1430 1378 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 20.0 21.0 22.1 23.2 25.3 26.8 27.9 28.8 29.7 30.9 31.6 32.1 LONG(DEG W) 42.7 43.8 44.9 45.9 46.9 49.5 52.1 54.4 56.3 57.8 58.8 59.3 59.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 15 15 13 10 9 8 6 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 15 11 6 5 8 33 32 25 31 28 27 22 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -7. -4. -2. 0. 3. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. 1. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -6. -4. 0. 5. 7. 9. 14. 21. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.9 42.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/25/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.16 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.56 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.82 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.42 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.26 0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 302.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.64 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 15.6% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% Logistic: 2.0% 7.7% 4.0% 1.1% 0.0% 1.3% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 3.4% 8.0% 4.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/25/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/25/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 65 64 62 59 61 65 70 72 74 79 86 85 18HR AGO 65 64 63 61 58 60 64 69 71 73 78 85 84 12HR AGO 65 62 61 59 56 58 62 67 69 71 76 83 82 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 52 54 58 63 65 67 72 79 78 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT