* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/25/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 47 50 59 63 71 76 82 85 82 80 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 47 50 59 63 71 76 82 85 82 80 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 47 52 56 60 63 68 73 76 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 11 10 13 11 5 5 4 3 5 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 2 0 2 2 0 -2 0 0 5 4 SHEAR DIR 335 325 317 299 310 299 270 261 175 34 56 41 26 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.2 27.3 26.8 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 155 152 150 146 143 143 140 137 138 132 125 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 69 67 64 60 56 56 54 51 49 47 49 52 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 15 16 17 20 21 24 25 27 30 30 31 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -5 3 6 10 9 13 21 32 55 53 34 37 200 MB DIV 31 42 45 53 61 30 38 46 23 9 -13 3 -3 700-850 TADV 1 1 3 4 4 3 4 4 2 -1 -2 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 755 757 748 757 773 822 906 993 1143 1329 1514 1696 1885 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.5 17.8 17.9 17.8 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 111.2 112.0 112.8 113.5 114.1 115.4 116.8 118.4 120.4 122.8 125.4 127.9 130.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 7 7 9 10 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 19 19 19 16 12 9 14 10 4 17 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 17.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 21. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 12. 13. 18. 19. 23. 25. 24. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 15. 24. 28. 36. 41. 47. 50. 47. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.0 111.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/25/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.75 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.25 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.70 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.43 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.39 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 152.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.69 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.53 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 28.1% 19.1% 12.7% 11.9% 15.2% 15.5% Logistic: 4.0% 19.5% 8.0% 4.5% 2.2% 5.5% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 16.1% 5.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% Consensus: 4.9% 21.3% 10.7% 6.2% 4.8% 7.1% 6.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/25/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##