* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/25/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 56 54 55 60 67 75 82 87 90 91 90 V (KT) LAND 60 58 56 54 55 60 67 75 82 87 90 91 90 V (KT) LGEM 60 58 56 54 54 55 61 73 85 94 97 95 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 23 27 28 19 3 3 7 6 5 10 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 -3 -3 -1 -2 -7 -3 -4 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 248 233 228 229 223 180 25 308 359 6 326 307 298 SST (C) 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.4 29.0 29.4 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 127 131 132 133 136 144 152 158 161 156 151 144 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 124 125 125 126 132 135 139 138 129 123 118 114 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -54.7 -54.6 -53.9 -53.2 -52.5 -52.4 -51.7 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 1.5 1.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 69 70 67 66 63 55 48 45 46 45 49 47 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 21 20 21 22 23 25 27 29 30 32 34 850 MB ENV VOR 22 15 4 -7 -3 4 -8 -5 0 -6 -18 -21 -6 200 MB DIV 92 108 63 17 15 10 14 25 -6 -3 3 9 19 700-850 TADV 23 26 35 27 26 -3 -3 -4 -5 0 2 4 6 LAND (KM) 1892 1950 2016 2008 1930 1742 1610 1551 1532 1555 1511 1437 1402 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 21.0 22.1 23.2 24.3 25.9 27.2 28.4 29.5 30.4 31.2 32.0 32.7 LONG(DEG W) 43.9 44.9 46.0 47.1 48.2 50.9 53.3 55.2 56.9 57.9 58.2 58.0 57.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 14 11 10 8 5 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 6 6 9 22 37 27 28 26 25 22 15 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -2. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -5. 0. 7. 15. 22. 27. 30. 31. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.8 43.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/25/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.20 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.47 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.77 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.40 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.32 0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 272.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.67 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 13.7% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 5.6% 2.6% 0.5% 0.0% 1.0% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.1% 6.5% 3.9% 0.2% 0.0% 3.2% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/25/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/25/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 58 56 54 55 60 67 75 82 87 90 91 90 18HR AGO 60 59 57 55 56 61 68 76 83 88 91 92 91 12HR AGO 60 57 56 54 55 60 67 75 82 87 90 91 90 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 56 63 71 78 83 86 87 86 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT