* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/25/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 60 65 73 76 81 85 87 86 81 77 V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 60 65 73 76 81 85 87 86 81 77 V (KT) LGEM 45 52 58 64 69 76 79 81 83 85 87 85 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 7 11 13 4 2 4 4 7 11 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 0 0 2 -1 -1 -3 -5 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 327 320 296 313 318 292 260 136 145 85 61 40 20 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.3 27.4 27.2 26.4 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 152 149 147 144 143 141 137 139 137 128 125 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.5 -53.0 -52.2 -52.8 -51.7 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 67 65 60 56 56 54 52 47 44 41 44 49 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 16 16 18 21 21 22 25 26 27 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR -3 4 10 12 14 15 28 44 68 68 44 20 4 200 MB DIV 37 41 49 62 40 28 51 33 6 17 -16 -18 -18 700-850 TADV 1 4 5 3 1 5 4 5 4 3 -2 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 754 752 761 779 803 897 994 1107 1278 1468 1641 1824 2001 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 112.1 112.9 113.7 114.4 115.0 116.5 118.0 119.8 122.1 124.5 127.0 129.3 131.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 10 11 12 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 19 19 17 13 10 14 12 5 13 12 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 27.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 11. 13. 17. 18. 19. 17. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 20. 28. 31. 36. 40. 42. 41. 36. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.4 112.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/25/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 5.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.64 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.25 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.69 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.47 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.39 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 218.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.59 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.63 -0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.9 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 16.0% 32.8% 23.1% 16.5% 15.4% 22.1% 28.8% Logistic: 10.9% 21.2% 13.2% 7.6% 3.7% 10.5% 14.1% Bayesian: 1.3% 28.7% 12.2% 4.4% 2.0% 4.4% 0.8% Consensus: 9.4% 27.6% 16.2% 9.5% 7.0% 12.4% 14.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/25/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##