* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/25/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 60 65 68 75 79 83 86 86 82 79 75 V (KT) LAND 50 55 60 65 68 75 79 83 86 86 82 79 75 V (KT) LGEM 50 56 62 67 72 78 81 84 85 87 87 83 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 11 12 10 4 2 1 5 9 14 9 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 0 1 0 1 0 -3 -4 1 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 316 303 312 320 316 289 315 131 76 43 45 51 16 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.3 26.5 26.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 148 146 144 143 142 138 137 138 130 125 134 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -51.8 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.2 0.8 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 64 59 55 55 54 52 48 43 41 39 42 47 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 19 20 22 24 25 27 27 27 28 28 850 MB ENV VOR 1 8 11 12 13 22 38 58 78 51 47 40 25 200 MB DIV 38 50 62 44 14 40 37 15 3 -34 -15 -13 -8 700-850 TADV 5 5 3 0 3 6 5 3 4 -3 -5 -2 0 LAND (KM) 756 763 779 805 836 934 1040 1198 1407 1588 1784 1994 2211 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.7 17.8 17.9 17.9 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.8 114.5 115.2 115.8 117.3 119.1 121.2 123.7 126.3 128.9 131.4 133.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 8 10 11 12 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 18 17 14 11 10 14 7 9 15 4 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 24.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 12. 15. 15. 15. 15. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 18. 25. 29. 33. 36. 36. 32. 29. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.7 113.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/25/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.61 5.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.56 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.23 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.77 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.48 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.36 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 281.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.50 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.56 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.98 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.2 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 17.4% 36.2% 24.6% 17.3% 17.0% 35.4% 30.7% Logistic: 13.5% 25.3% 15.1% 7.8% 3.8% 10.9% 11.5% Bayesian: 7.1% 20.9% 8.8% 3.0% 1.1% 4.0% 0.5% Consensus: 12.7% 27.5% 16.1% 9.4% 7.3% 16.7% 14.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/25/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##