* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/26/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 56 58 66 75 83 90 98 100 101 101 V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 56 58 66 75 83 90 98 100 101 101 V (KT) LGEM 55 53 53 53 54 61 71 84 94 98 97 96 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 25 17 7 4 2 3 6 7 6 14 22 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -4 0 -1 -2 -5 -5 -6 -2 -3 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 223 228 229 222 185 44 301 5 302 305 282 277 268 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.5 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.1 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 137 140 145 154 158 159 154 149 145 138 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 126 127 129 133 138 136 133 127 122 119 117 113 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -55.0 -55.1 -54.9 -55.0 -54.8 -53.7 -53.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 9 9 700-500 MB RH 66 65 63 58 54 51 47 46 41 44 44 52 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 20 19 20 21 24 26 29 31 33 37 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -9 -7 -5 2 -9 -8 -9 -22 -11 -15 13 39 200 MB DIV 60 23 23 27 32 21 8 -2 -5 1 -17 52 57 700-850 TADV 35 30 21 11 -6 0 -4 -1 0 0 1 4 4 LAND (KM) 2030 2011 1927 1843 1771 1605 1546 1567 1611 1518 1444 1390 1333 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 23.4 24.5 25.4 26.3 27.5 28.6 29.7 30.6 31.4 32.1 33.3 34.7 LONG(DEG W) 45.9 47.1 48.3 49.5 50.8 53.6 55.5 56.6 57.2 57.5 57.6 56.2 53.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 15 14 14 12 9 6 4 4 5 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 5 9 24 33 37 26 30 25 22 21 16 12 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 15 CX,CY: -9/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 10. 11. 13. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 3. 11. 20. 28. 35. 43. 45. 46. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 22.2 45.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/26/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.49 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.43 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.83 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.92 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.27 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.40 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 280.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.66 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 16.0% 10.5% 10.0% 7.7% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 14.0% 8.8% 2.7% 0.0% 4.7% 9.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 2.3% 10.3% 6.5% 4.3% 2.6% 4.9% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/26/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/26/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 54 56 58 66 75 83 90 98 100 101 101 18HR AGO 55 54 54 56 58 66 75 83 90 98 100 101 101 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 55 63 72 80 87 95 97 98 98 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 55 64 72 79 87 89 90 90 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT