* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/26/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 62 66 72 76 82 80 84 81 80 75 V (KT) LAND 50 54 58 62 66 72 76 82 80 84 81 80 75 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 57 60 64 69 73 77 81 86 87 83 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 13 13 11 5 3 4 4 7 9 11 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 1 1 0 -1 -4 0 1 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 295 317 322 311 291 284 108 95 86 58 64 20 18 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.4 27.3 27.3 26.5 26.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 148 146 144 142 142 139 138 138 130 128 137 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -51.9 -52.5 -51.5 -52.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 59 56 56 55 54 51 48 47 41 43 45 53 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 21 23 24 25 27 25 28 29 30 28 850 MB ENV VOR 2 8 8 8 4 20 40 65 73 58 34 25 28 200 MB DIV 55 66 49 26 30 43 19 27 13 -27 -15 -14 22 700-850 TADV 7 5 1 4 5 2 4 0 5 -4 -2 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 760 768 779 808 843 942 1049 1213 1448 1641 1854 2065 2154 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.7 17.9 17.8 17.8 17.9 17.9 17.8 17.8 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 113.5 114.0 114.5 115.2 115.9 117.6 119.1 121.3 124.2 126.9 129.5 132.0 134.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 6 7 7 8 9 12 13 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 18 17 14 9 11 14 6 12 10 2 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 26.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 13. 10. 14. 14. 15. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 22. 26. 32. 30. 34. 31. 30. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.9 113.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/26/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.55 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.23 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.90 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.50 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.38 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 293.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.49 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.53 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 34% is 4.8 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 14.9% 36.5% 24.1% 17.6% 15.2% 34.1% 22.9% Logistic: 11.4% 29.9% 17.4% 9.3% 5.4% 13.4% 8.6% Bayesian: 3.4% 10.8% 4.7% 1.8% 0.6% 2.9% 0.3% Consensus: 9.9% 25.7% 15.4% 9.5% 7.1% 16.8% 10.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/26/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##