* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/26/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 58 61 65 73 80 84 90 96 95 96 92 V (KT) LAND 55 56 58 61 65 73 80 84 90 96 95 96 92 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 57 59 61 69 80 89 94 94 92 89 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 19 9 6 6 2 9 6 6 7 21 22 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 0 -2 -4 -2 -5 -1 -2 -6 -4 1 1 SHEAR DIR 222 223 214 184 185 164 10 22 13 284 301 280 273 SST (C) 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.7 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.2 27.9 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 133 137 140 144 148 155 157 157 153 147 139 136 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 128 129 131 133 136 134 132 126 121 116 116 111 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.0 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -53.8 -53.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 67 62 59 56 51 48 43 43 40 40 43 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 19 20 20 22 23 26 28 28 31 32 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -8 0 10 -11 -8 -37 -27 -34 -26 -5 20 25 200 MB DIV 20 20 33 27 6 21 -18 -3 2 7 -10 54 42 700-850 TADV 32 25 15 1 2 1 -4 2 0 1 5 9 13 LAND (KM) 2022 1924 1838 1756 1685 1586 1579 1593 1568 1468 1401 1370 1315 LAT (DEG N) 23.4 24.4 25.4 26.1 26.8 28.0 29.1 30.0 30.9 31.9 33.0 34.0 34.9 LONG(DEG W) 47.0 48.3 49.6 50.9 52.1 54.3 55.6 56.6 57.5 57.5 56.6 54.5 51.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 13 12 10 7 6 5 6 8 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 9 24 33 38 32 26 29 24 22 18 14 11 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 15 CX,CY: -9/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 9. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 18. 25. 29. 35. 41. 40. 41. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 23.4 47.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/26/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.60 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.59 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.8 to -3.1 0.79 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.92 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.22 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.41 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 287.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.65 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 19.0% 12.3% 11.8% 9.3% 14.7% 20.4% Logistic: 2.6% 21.7% 13.7% 5.2% 0.0% 7.6% 13.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 3.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.7% Consensus: 3.4% 14.6% 9.0% 5.7% 3.1% 7.6% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/26/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/26/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 4( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 58 61 65 73 80 84 90 96 95 96 92 18HR AGO 55 54 56 59 63 71 78 82 88 94 93 94 90 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 58 66 73 77 83 89 88 89 85 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 49 57 64 68 74 80 79 80 76 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT