* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/26/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 57 59 66 70 71 75 77 74 71 73 V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 57 59 66 70 71 75 77 74 71 73 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 54 56 59 61 62 64 68 67 66 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 13 7 7 5 5 4 4 6 8 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 1 0 0 -2 0 1 0 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 314 325 318 289 275 288 154 155 80 51 88 19 28 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.6 27.1 27.2 26.6 26.2 26.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 147 145 144 144 140 135 137 131 126 133 133 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -52.6 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.2 0.9 1.1 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 58 57 57 55 53 49 44 42 39 42 49 55 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 19 19 20 22 23 23 24 27 25 24 27 850 MB ENV VOR 4 5 1 4 10 24 50 72 69 40 35 24 36 200 MB DIV 46 35 17 30 42 20 33 31 24 -22 -18 -10 0 700-850 TADV 6 1 2 5 5 5 4 11 3 -2 -1 0 -2 LAND (KM) 807 828 854 886 921 1039 1174 1340 1521 1721 1983 2193 1992 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.6 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.0 18.0 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 114.2 114.9 115.5 116.2 116.8 118.7 120.7 123.0 125.6 128.3 131.2 133.6 135.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 9 11 11 13 13 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 20 18 16 14 12 11 14 9 3 18 1 7 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 13.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 4. 8. 10. 10. 12. 14. 12. 10. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 16. 20. 21. 25. 27. 24. 21. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.8 114.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/26/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.55 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.21 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.81 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.42 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.31 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 291.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.49 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.71 -0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 28.4% 19.7% 14.3% 11.5% 17.4% 16.3% Logistic: 4.0% 14.3% 5.9% 3.7% 1.9% 3.7% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 4.8% 15.4% 8.9% 6.2% 4.5% 7.2% 6.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/26/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##