* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/26/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 59 61 64 73 81 86 95 100 102 100 96 V (KT) LAND 55 56 59 61 64 73 81 86 95 100 102 100 96 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 57 60 63 73 84 91 93 95 93 89 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 13 8 9 7 5 8 6 3 16 22 29 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -3 -5 -5 -5 -2 -2 -1 -3 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 219 207 191 205 220 313 33 351 307 290 288 285 264 SST (C) 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 140 144 148 152 156 155 153 149 143 140 137 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 129 131 133 135 134 129 126 121 118 118 117 111 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -53.4 -53.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 62 58 55 52 50 45 43 38 41 41 48 51 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 20 19 21 24 25 28 31 34 35 37 850 MB ENV VOR -10 0 6 -14 -18 -20 -27 -31 -5 1 25 30 31 200 MB DIV 30 39 28 7 4 0 -16 1 6 -23 26 27 49 700-850 TADV 33 19 5 0 1 -1 0 -1 0 4 6 5 10 LAND (KM) 1992 1898 1816 1748 1689 1632 1631 1645 1562 1526 1504 1457 1362 LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.6 26.5 27.2 27.8 28.9 29.8 30.6 31.3 32.0 32.7 33.6 34.7 LONG(DEG W) 47.7 49.1 50.4 51.6 52.8 54.6 55.7 56.4 56.7 56.0 54.5 52.3 49.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 12 11 8 6 5 4 5 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 21 32 34 28 26 28 27 23 21 19 17 12 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 15 CX,CY: -6/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 18. 26. 31. 40. 45. 47. 45. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.7 47.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/26/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.65 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.40 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.72 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.92 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.43 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 19.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 323.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.62 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 17.0% 11.2% 10.7% 8.4% 10.2% 19.3% Logistic: 2.9% 21.0% 11.8% 5.1% 0.0% 6.1% 9.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 13.3% 7.9% 5.3% 2.8% 5.5% 9.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/26/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/26/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 59 61 64 73 81 86 95 100 102 100 96 18HR AGO 55 54 57 59 62 71 79 84 93 98 100 98 94 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 56 65 73 78 87 92 94 92 88 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 57 65 70 79 84 86 84 80 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT