* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/26/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 63 67 76 83 87 93 98 100 98 93 V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 63 67 76 83 87 93 98 100 98 93 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 58 62 66 76 86 90 90 91 90 86 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 9 5 5 9 6 7 7 19 22 29 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -5 -5 -6 -4 0 0 -1 -5 -2 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 197 196 218 246 241 351 42 353 318 312 296 288 270 SST (C) 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 140 144 148 150 153 155 154 150 148 144 140 136 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 130 132 133 133 132 128 122 121 120 118 115 108 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -53.9 -53.6 -53.1 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 57 55 51 50 49 43 43 40 41 43 48 49 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 19 19 20 21 24 24 27 30 33 34 34 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -2 -21 -29 -25 -45 -33 -43 -25 -15 11 12 8 200 MB DIV 11 23 8 6 8 -15 -3 -2 12 -7 37 39 55 700-850 TADV 17 7 0 1 2 -2 0 0 4 5 8 6 5 LAND (KM) 1901 1823 1756 1704 1660 1630 1641 1625 1579 1548 1537 1441 1332 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 26.6 27.3 27.9 28.4 29.4 30.2 30.8 31.4 32.1 32.8 33.8 35.1 LONG(DEG W) 49.1 50.4 51.6 52.6 53.7 55.2 56.1 56.4 56.1 55.1 53.3 51.3 49.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 9 7 5 3 5 7 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 32 33 27 26 27 29 25 23 23 22 17 14 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 15 CX,CY: -9/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 14. 15. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 21. 28. 32. 38. 43. 45. 43. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 25.8 49.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/26/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.78 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.40 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.66 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.92 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.43 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 41.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.59 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 351.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.59 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 17.2% 11.2% 10.8% 8.7% 10.1% 19.7% Logistic: 2.3% 14.4% 7.3% 2.8% 0.0% 4.6% 9.3% Bayesian: 0.8% 2.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 11.4% 6.5% 4.6% 2.9% 4.9% 9.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/26/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/26/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 59 63 67 76 83 87 93 98 100 98 93 18HR AGO 55 54 56 60 64 73 80 84 90 95 97 95 90 12HR AGO 55 52 51 55 59 68 75 79 85 90 92 90 85 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 49 58 65 69 75 80 82 80 75 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT