* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/26/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 67 68 70 71 71 70 70 69 67 68 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 67 68 70 71 71 70 70 69 67 68 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 67 68 69 70 68 68 68 68 66 67 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 7 9 8 2 2 7 12 9 6 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -1 0 1 0 -1 -1 -2 -4 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 319 308 283 284 284 191 114 92 81 88 70 67 69 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.4 26.6 26.4 27.1 27.2 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 143 144 143 140 137 139 131 128 135 137 132 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.0 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 55 54 53 51 48 45 44 40 44 50 55 60 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 19 19 20 21 20 21 23 22 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -4 3 5 11 46 66 60 52 42 30 36 40 200 MB DIV 4 3 25 25 12 16 50 14 -2 -24 -1 6 9 700-850 TADV 3 4 4 3 6 7 14 4 -2 -2 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 822 862 906 965 1030 1182 1381 1589 1815 2039 2196 1958 1700 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.7 17.8 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.8 17.9 17.7 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 115.4 116.1 116.8 117.8 118.7 120.9 123.4 126.2 129.1 131.7 134.0 136.3 138.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 14 13 12 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 16 13 12 10 10 14 8 9 14 1 8 24 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 10.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 6. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 7. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.5 115.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/26/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 4.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.42 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.16 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.71 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.60 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.98 5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.17 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 431.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.29 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.75 -0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 28.1 81.4 to 0.0 0.65 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 28.9% 21.6% 17.2% 13.9% 17.8% 15.8% Logistic: 2.9% 8.5% 3.4% 2.4% 1.1% 2.1% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 10.6% 3.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 16.0% 9.6% 6.9% 5.1% 6.8% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/26/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##