* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/27/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 64 67 75 81 87 89 93 93 96 90 V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 64 67 75 81 87 89 93 93 96 90 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 59 63 68 79 86 88 87 87 87 84 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 5 5 6 8 6 5 10 18 24 33 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -4 -6 -6 0 2 1 2 0 0 -9 -3 SHEAR DIR 194 223 262 256 300 23 358 341 304 304 296 284 271 SST (C) 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 148 152 153 154 155 152 148 146 144 141 136 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 133 134 133 132 129 124 121 120 120 119 116 107 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -51.8 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 11 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 55 52 51 49 45 44 39 41 39 45 45 47 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 21 19 22 24 27 27 30 31 36 36 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -26 -30 -32 -40 -39 -46 -19 -19 4 14 26 -2 200 MB DIV 14 0 11 -5 5 -13 -4 -8 8 28 4 42 31 700-850 TADV 8 3 0 2 0 0 0 2 4 5 4 6 3 LAND (KM) 1830 1759 1697 1683 1676 1667 1661 1604 1579 1570 1556 1463 1363 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.2 27.8 28.5 29.1 30.0 30.5 31.1 31.6 32.1 32.7 33.7 35.1 LONG(DEG W) 50.3 51.5 52.7 53.4 54.2 55.4 56.2 56.2 55.7 54.4 52.6 50.3 47.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 9 8 6 3 3 5 7 9 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 33 28 26 26 28 29 24 23 24 24 22 13 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. 1. 3. 6. 6. 8. 9. 15. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 20. 26. 32. 34. 38. 38. 41. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 26.6 50.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/27/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.80 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.46 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.61 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.92 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.14 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.44 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 29.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.71 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 384.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.56 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 17.2% 11.5% 11.2% 9.0% 10.0% 19.4% Logistic: 3.3% 20.1% 11.6% 5.9% 0.0% 6.6% 7.6% Bayesian: 1.2% 2.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% Consensus: 3.7% 13.2% 8.0% 5.7% 3.0% 5.7% 9.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/27/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/27/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 60 64 67 75 81 87 89 93 93 96 90 18HR AGO 55 54 57 61 64 72 78 84 86 90 90 93 87 12HR AGO 55 52 51 55 58 66 72 78 80 84 84 87 81 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 56 62 68 70 74 74 77 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT