* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/27/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 66 67 68 71 71 70 68 65 65 63 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 66 67 68 71 71 70 68 65 65 63 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 64 65 66 65 65 66 67 66 66 66 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 7 7 5 4 6 11 9 9 9 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -4 -3 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 294 261 262 254 186 165 122 81 73 85 63 83 64 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.2 27.2 27.1 26.2 26.5 27.1 26.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 142 140 137 137 136 127 130 136 130 130 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.0 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 55 54 51 47 45 45 40 41 42 45 47 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 21 20 21 23 23 24 24 22 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 2 12 13 19 29 55 57 63 54 55 40 35 33 200 MB DIV 7 25 25 16 4 20 11 -12 -8 -33 -24 -14 2 700-850 TADV 5 6 5 7 7 9 12 -3 -3 0 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 851 907 948 1004 1067 1249 1451 1649 1883 2116 2036 1763 1480 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 116.1 116.9 117.7 118.7 119.7 122.0 124.5 127.2 130.1 132.8 135.5 138.1 140.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 9 9 12 11 4 13 3 5 13 12 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. 5. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.8 116.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/27/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.40 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.14 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.71 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.74 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.98 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.18 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 456.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.26 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.73 -0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 21.2 81.4 to 0.0 0.74 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 29.0% 21.8% 17.1% 14.6% 17.4% 14.4% Logistic: 4.1% 8.5% 5.2% 2.9% 1.4% 2.1% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 13.4% 9.3% 6.7% 5.4% 6.5% 5.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/27/16 00 UTC ## ##