* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/27/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 48 53 62 69 72 74 71 69 65 59 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 48 53 62 69 72 74 71 69 65 59 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 48 56 61 64 64 61 56 51 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 11 11 8 5 6 4 3 4 6 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -7 -7 -7 -6 -5 0 3 4 3 3 6 SHEAR DIR 57 62 61 62 72 83 103 175 98 178 183 204 213 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.3 27.5 27.2 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.3 26.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 148 146 138 135 135 132 128 126 129 133 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 67 67 65 63 64 64 60 57 55 53 52 49 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 15 17 18 18 18 19 18 18 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 19 21 20 28 35 37 34 39 51 24 34 30 32 200 MB DIV 74 83 56 53 66 56 64 65 26 7 -8 25 22 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -6 -5 -3 0 1 6 9 7 5 1 2 LAND (KM) 1996 1906 1817 1734 1650 1504 1335 1165 986 791 598 389 180 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.2 14.8 15.2 15.5 16.2 17.1 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.2 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 137.1 137.8 138.4 139.1 139.8 141.0 142.4 143.9 145.5 147.3 149.1 151.1 153.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 32 36 36 29 25 20 9 10 8 5 6 10 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 434 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 9. 7. 6. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 27. 34. 37. 39. 36. 34. 30. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.6 137.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/27/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.72 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.42 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.52 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.51 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.53 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 147.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.69 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.14 -0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 28.5% 21.4% 14.7% 13.8% 18.2% 16.3% Logistic: 5.5% 15.1% 8.2% 3.1% 1.3% 6.9% 5.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% Consensus: 5.7% 15.8% 10.2% 6.0% 5.1% 8.5% 7.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/27/16 00 UTC ## ##